The Abject Failure of Low-Cost Carriers & My Prediction
Welcome back to Brooke In The Air! Today we examine why low-cost carriers (LCCs) especially in the US are failing. Airlines such as Spirit, Frontier, Sun Country, and Southwest even JetBlue to an extent, are suffering and many are circling the drain.
INTRO & EVOLVING BUSINESS MODELS
None of these are full-service carriers. American used to be but that’s debatable. Limited or no ground service, no or limited lounges, and no Business or First-class seating.
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Jetblue Airbus A321 taking off, photo courtesy our partners at TripAdvisor
JetBlue is actually reworking their business model to become a more premium-focused carrier by offering their Mint seats (albeit scaled down) on domestic flights. Tthis is in response to the collapse of their Northeast Alliance with American Airlines and blocked merger with Spirit.
Prediction: They stay afloat but with a complete business remodel into a full-service carrier like the “big boys.”
Sun Country Boeing 737-700 photo courtesy our partners at KAYAK
Sun Country is becoming a solely regional carrier in an effort to save money. Sort of a regional-type air shuttle service for commuters. I and my fellow aviation reviewers are in consensus that Sun Country cannot survive much longer.
Prediction: they file Chapter 11 bankruptcy and eventually go under, leaving their routes to be picked over by legacy carriers’ regional partners i.e. United Express, Delta Conection, American Eagle.
Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-800 in flight, photo courtesy our partners at TripAdvisor
Southwest, famous for their perks, is scaling back a great deal though they are keeping their famed “two bags fly free” perk for now. They’ve completely gotten rid of their “cattle call” style boarding process in favor of conventional assigned seating.
Prediction: Southwest, doing as their board and shareholders bid, will continue on slowly dying. I predict death by 2028-29, maybe 2030.
Frontier Airlines’ Airbus A320 in flight, photo courtesy our partners at TripAdvisor - “Guss the Grizzly”
Frontier the long-time budget carrier & famous for their cutesy animals painted on their aircraft, as well as very little else, later this year as of 2025, will be offering a variant of first class on their fleet of A320 aircraft. Given their pathetic state of being in their conventional one-class configuration, I don’t hold high hopes for this.
Prediction: Frontier is desperately trying, like Spirit, to stay viable. Death by 2027.
Spirit Airlines’ Airbus A320 in their signature Big Yellow Bus livery
Spirit the famous yellow bus budget airline, has already started packaging their perks and marketing their Big Front Seat option as their take on First-class. They recentlyy filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy resulting in dozens of canceled routers and thousands of laid-off employees and a 20% reduction in overall company size.
Prediction: Spirit will die and the carcass will be absorbed by a legacy carrier, either Delta or United.
American Airlines is on track to become a low-cost airline and ranks continually one of the worst airlines in the world and the United States.
Prediction: A legacy carrier, American still is not immune to bankruptcy and being absorbed. American Aairlines is in the process of seemingly becoming a domestic or regional carrier on par with Spirit with a few international routes. My prediction is a massive scaling-back and transformation into a Domestic carrier. Good riddance.
American Airlines’ fleet contingent at PHX - Phoenix Skyharbor International Airport, Phoenix, Arizona - USA, from bottom to top - Airbus A320, A319, A320 again, and a Boeing 737-800NG
CONCLUSION
This is going to be an interesting year in aviation, as I predict at least two of these airlines going under.
It is important to note that these are all moves of desperation in order to stay in business as more Americans find the joy of premium travel classes and Economy class gets progressively worse, at least in the West.
Fuel pricing/cost continues to be a critical factor as well as low—cost carriers have to pay per barrel the same as legacy carriers.
