Aviation Analysis! More Predictions!
Lufthansa main base (one of two) at Munich Airport
Welcome back to Brooke in The Air! This week we’re going to make some more educated predictions regarding the aviation industry and the volatile state of the United States affecting global aviation.
It’s… exciting isn’t quite the right adjective, more like nerve-wracking… which works well as a phrase, especially in an industry that is balanced on a razor’s-edge at the very best of times. Economically, this is assuredly not the best of times.
Americans are increasingly afraid to fly internationally, and this is not due to the aircraft in question; it is due to the enhanced security at the U.S.’s departure airports. One discrepancy and they will find themselves on a flight to El Salvador and spending the rest of their lives in the CECOT Concentration Camp.
Spirit Airlines’ Airbus A320-NEO
Avelo, a low-cost air carrier (ULCC) based in Houston, Texas, is now I.C.E.’s official prison, or rather, deportation, charter airline, signing an agreement/contract in Washington D.C. for an undisclosed amount of taxpayer dollars. They didn’t bother to defend their decision, but they had pulled their operations from Charles M. Schultz-Sonoma County Airport (California) and redeployed three (3) of their Boeing 737-800 (NG) aircraft serving Boise, Idaho routes, to use as prison planes as needed.
On the tariff front, Delta has condemned the move by the Trump Administration to place enhanced or reciprocal tariffs on other countries necessary for the success of the aviation industry. United’s CEO, Scott Kirby praised Trump’s tariff move, though he may have different views personally, it’s believed Scott Kirby may be playing the long game. American Airlines had no confirmed comment.
Low-cost carriers (ULCCs and LCCs) may start to feel the pain of tariffs eventually and in a year or so will be entering a death spiral due to increased maintenance and fuel costs and increased cost of acquiring parts and aircraft. Spirit Airlines, for example, gets aircraft from French aircraft manufacturer Airbus.
Additionally, esteemed and notable airlines are reducing their international flights to the U.S. given the lack of demand from would-be customers. Lufthansa, Emirates, Etihad, China Airlines (Taiwan), Air Canada, WestJet, and others to come, are all reducing or canceling routes to the U.S.
United Boeing 737-800 and Lufthansa Boeing 747-400 taxiing at LAX, Los Angeles, California
The U.S is estimated to lose about 64 billion US dollars in tourism alone this year, before December 31st, 2025 due to lack of demand or otherwise desire, people are asking themselves “why would I travel here?“
These are the short but not-so-sweet updates and predictions for the industry given the political destabilization.
